基于房价收入比的房地产泡沫测度研究

A Research on Real Estate Bubble Estimation on the Basis of Price-income Ratio

应用房价收入比的波动和收入对房价的解释程度可以衡量房地产泡沫。通过建立泡沫测度模型,并利用泡沫测度模型的R-Square值和房价收入比的波动程度对30个省市区进行泡沫测度,结果表明,对房地产泡沫测度的结果比较吻合实际情况。衡量房地产市场泡沫不宜直接使用房价收入比指标。消除房地产市场泡沫应使房价收入增长与人均收入增长保持大致相当的比例。

The fluctuation of the ratio of housing price to income and the interpretation of income to housing price can be used to estimate the real estate bubble. After establishing the bubble estimation model, a bubble test was conducted in 30 provinces and cities by using the R-Square value of the bubble estimation model and the fluctuation of price-income ratio. The result shows that the measure of the real estate bubble accords with the actual situation. It is not proper to use price-income ratio index to measure the real estate market bubble. To remove the real estate market bubble, the housing price growth and the income growth for per person should be kept in probably equal proportion.