论地震预报策略

ON THE STRATEGIES OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

在当今地震预报科学水平还很低、而社会又强烈地期望实现地震预报的情况下,地震社会学问题更显突出。地震预报策略,就是管理部门在充分尊重地震预报专家地震预测预报意见的基础上,以何种形式和口径向上级领导机关报告或向社会公众通报的策略,以取得防御和减轻地震灾害的最佳效果。论述了目前使用的9种地震预报策略的要点及正负效应。

Since current earthquake prediction is not precise enough, while people have stronge expectation on it, under this situation the society problem of earthquake becomes much more important. In order to decrease earthquake damage and not make people panic, on the basis of earthquake predictive expert' s opinion, the govennent earthquake prediction organization has to report the prediction results to the higher level govennent division and social public in some suitable modes such as prediction straegy, prediction method. This paper discribed some key points of nine earthquake prediction strategies, as well as their effectiveness.