据赤道经向风剖面及岛屿站风资料诊断厄尔尼诺事件

Diagnosing El Nio events by equatorial meridional wind profile and wind data from island stations

据赤道经向风剖面及热带西太平洋岛屿站测风资料来诊断厄尔尼诺（ＥｌＮｉｎｏ）事件，试图从观测事实方面来跟踪与预测ＥｌＮｉｎｏ的发生。分析结果得出：气候监测公报中８５０ｈＰａ风指数对监测、诊断已发生的ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件较好，但不能用来预测ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件的发生，而热带西太平洋岛屿站月平均纬向风对ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件的发生有一定的指示意义。从越赤道气流的演变特征进一步证明，ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件对应于弱季风，而拉尼娜（ＬａＮｉｎａ）事件对应于强季风。

In this paper,equatorial meridional wind profile and wind data from island stationsin in tropical west Pacific, are used to diagnose El Nio events We try to trace and predict the occurrence of El Nio according to the observed facts The analysis results show that 850 hPa wind index in the climate monitoring bulletin can be well used in the monitoring and diagnosis of the occurred El Nio events,and monthly average zonal wind data from the island stations can indicat occurrence of El Nio events The variance of trans equator flow further proves that El Nio events are related to weak monsoon and La Nia, strong monsoon