盈利结构质量、核心盈利能力与盈利持续性——来自我国A股制造业上市公司的经验证据

Quality of Earnings Structure,Core Profitability and Earnings Persistence:Evidence from China's A Share Listed Companies in Manufacturing Industry

盈利持续性是衡量盈利质量的重要手段,对投资者预测公司未来的发展前景具有重要意义。本文在我国新会计准则的财务信息披露模式下,对公司的盈利结构展开全面分析,构建出一套基于核心盈利能力的盈利结构质量评价指标体系,并以制造业A股上市公司2006-2008年的财务数据为基础采用因子分析法对该指标体系的有效性进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:公司的核心盈利能力越强,盈利结构质量越高,盈利的持续性就越好;而核心盈利能力较弱的公司,其盈利结构中非持续性的盈利项目往往占比过大,从而导致盈利的持续性较差。本文得出如下结论:核心盈利能力和盈利结构质量是影响盈利持续性的重要因素,文中提出的盈利结构质量评价指标体系对公司的盈利持续性具有较好的预测能力。

Earnings persistence is a key measure of earnings quality and is of great significance for investors to forecast companies＇ prospect. Based on the accounting information disclosure model under China＇ s new accounting standard, this paper analyzes earnings structure of companies, builds up a system of evaluating the quality of earnings structure on top of core profitability, tests the validity of the system by factor analysis on the data of China＇ s A share listed companies in manufacturing industry from 2006 to 2008. The results show： the stronger a company＇ s core profitability, the higher quality of the earning structure, then the better the earnings＇ persistence. For those companies whose core profitability is relatively poor, the proportion of the non - persistent items in their earnings is often too much and results in low persistence of the earnings. This paper concludes that core profitability and quality of earnings have significant effect on earnings persistence, and the evaluating system has fairly good forecasting power on it.