中国钢铁出口规模影响因素的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of the Exportation Scale of Iron & Steel Products in China

采用2000—2001,2002—2004,2005—2006年三期数据对中国钢铁产品的16个主要出口市场进行研究,运用恒定市场份额分析法(CMS)对中国钢铁产品出口变动的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明,产品出口竞争力上升是主要动因,世界市场规模的扩大有一定促进作用,市场集中对其起抑制作用。因此,应进一步提高钢铁产品出口竞争力,并对影响出口竞争力的因素加以深究。

According to the variations of the trading characteristics of Chinese iron ＆ steel products, the paper chooses 16 main expert markets and uses the trade data of three periods （2000--2001,2002--2004, 2005--2006） to analyze the expert market and the influencing factors of the exportation change with the CMS model. The conclusions indicate that the increase of export competition is the most important causation; the enlargement of market scale has certain effect and the market concentration plays inhibitory effect. So further research is necessary.