汇率风险下基于船价与首付款关系的接单对策研究

Study on order receiving measures based on the relation between ship price and initial payment in the context of exchange rate risk

在船厂接单过程中,船价与首付款存在着此消彼长的关系,同时,人民币兑美元汇率的变化更增加了我国船厂收益的不确定性.在考虑人民币汇率的前提下,应用资金的时间价值理论,建立船舶订单收入现值模型,对船价、首付款与船舶订单收入现值之间的关系进行了研究,并据此提出我国船厂的接单对策.船厂是采取提高船价并适当降低首付款比例的接单对策,还是采取提高首付款比例并适当降低船价的接单对策,在不同时期要在综合考虑手持订单量、船舶建造进度安排和人民币兑美元的汇率及预期等因素的情况下作出相应的接单对策.

In the process of receiving ship orders, the relation between ship price and initial payment is that when one increases, the other decreases. At the same time, the change of RMB against the U. S. dollar exchange rate increases the uncertainty on the income of shipyards in China. Considering the RMB exchange rate and using the time value of money, this paper studied the relation among ship price, initial payment, and the present value of ship price by establishing a present value model of ship order revenue ; and then gave the corresponding order receiving measures for shipyards in China. Whether taking measures of increased ship price and decreased initial payment or taking measures of increased initial payment and decreased ship price, shipyards should consider the number of ship orders in hand, ship building schedule, and the change of RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate simultaneously. Based on all the factors, shipyards may decide the proper order receiving measures in different situation.