摘要
农业保险制度是被WTO组织认为所允许的国家扶持农业发展的"绿箱"政策之一,科学厘定保险费率是确保农业保险经营稳定的重要前提。本文介绍了小波分析和非参数方法的一般数学原理,接着列出了保险费率厘定的小波——非参数统计方法一般步骤,即利用小波方法确定作物单产的趋势产量、用非参数核密度方法估计作物损失的概率分布和厘定保险费率。最后进行了实证分析,将小波——非参数方法应用于江苏水稻产量保险纯费率的厘定。
The agricultural insurance system was accepted by WTO as one of the national supported ＂green box＂ policies. Accurate premium rate is an essential step in carrying on the agricultural insurance. This article introduces the mathematical theories about Wavelet and Nonparametric Estimation and works out the general steps for Wavelet--Nonparametric Estima- tion Method in the Premium Rating of Agricultural Insurance. That is, Using Wavelet method to decompose the time series to get the tendency part of crop yield and Nonparametric kernel density estimation to model the probability distribution of crop losses, then the pure premium rating is calculated. As an application, We use this Wavelet--Nonparametric Estimation Method in premium rating of rice yield insurance in Jiangsu.
出处
《系统工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第8期39-43,共5页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(10771097)
南京农业大学青年科技创新基金资助项目(KJ08024)
关键词
农业保险
费率
小波
非参数
Agricultural Insurance
Premium Rating
Wavelet
Nonparametric
