短时交通流交通状态转变及其特性分析

Analysis on Traffic State Change and Its Characteristics of Short-term Traffic Flow

针对短时交通流预测中忽视交通流所处交通状态的转变及所处的状态。首先简要介绍了相干递归图及相干定量递归分析,以1分钟为间隔的实测数据为例,通过相干递归图分别可视化常发性拥挤和偶发性拥挤中时间占有率和流量的递归特性,然后运用相干定量递归分析分别确定了常发性拥挤和偶发性拥挤交通状态的转变时刻,得到了不同交通状态的统计特征值,并做出分析。结果表明将交通流划分为四个状态更具合理性,同时各状态的统计特性分析对短时交通量预测及交通拥堵机理研究都有重要的意义。

Previous short-term traffic flow prediction often overlooks traffic transitional behavior and traffic flow＇ s multi-regime. At first, this paper briefly introduces cross recurrence plot and cross recurrence quantification analysis method, and taking 1-minute interval data as example, respectively visualizes the recursive property of time occupancy and traffic volume time series under recurrent congestion and non-recurrent congestion conditions by applying the cross recurrence plot, and then identifies the change time and obtains the statistical characteristics of different traffic patterns by applying the cross recurrence quantification analysis. Results indicate that it is more reasonable to divide traffic flow into four regimes and that the statistical characteristics of different traffic patterns will contribute a lot to short-term traffic forecast and evolution mechanism of traffic congestion.