摘要
研究基于风险的定量安全评估方法,对我国铁路系统进行定量安全评估。基于风险的定量安全评估过程分为危害事件识别、定量风险分析及评估、风险处理和风险持续监测及管理4个步骤。采用故障树技术分析导致危害事件发生的成因及其频率,采用事件树技术分析危害事件发生后可能导致的后果,从而确定危害事件的风险水平。利用此方法对铁路平交道口进行定量安全评估结果表明:列车与机动车在平交道口相撞是平交道口风险最高的危害事件;该危害事件在该类型全部道口可能导致的平均等效死亡人数约52个.年-1;降低该事件发生频率最有效的措施是对司机进行安全教育,对防护栏进行定期检查和维护;减轻该事件后果严重性最有效的措施是严格控制客车超载。
A method of quantitative safety assessment based on risk in railway system is introduced in this paper,which comprises four steps,including hazard event identification,quantitative risk analysis and assessment,risk control,continuing monitoring and management.Fault tree analysis is used to find the cause and frequency of hazard event,and event tree analysis is used to develop the outcome,then the level of the risk of hazard event is got.Some conclusions from the application of the method into level crossing can be drawn： the collision between a train and a car is the hazard event with the highest risk, which can bring 52 equivalent fatalities in a year. Education to driver and periodic inspection and maintenance of protective guard can reduce the frequency of this hazard event effectively, and the prevention of overloading can minish its severity of outcome.
出处
《中国铁道科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第5期123-128,共6页
China Railway Science
基金
铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2006YF19)
关键词
铁路系统
风险
定量安全评估
故障树分析
事件树分析
平交道口
Railway system
Risk
Quantitative safety assessment
Fault tree analysis
Event tree analysis
Level crossing
