变电站投资费用模型及敏感因素分析

Investment Cost Model and Sensitive Factor Analysis on Substation

本文结合变电站各阶段费用的特点,应用全寿命周期费用分析方法对变电站的建设进行决策分析。将变电站的全寿命周期费用分为一次投资费用、运行费用和中断供电损失费用,建立了变电站全寿命周期费用估算模型,基于运行年限、年利率和通货膨胀率对变电站的全寿命周期费用进行修正以及敏感因素分析。以220kV变电站为例,对其综合自动化系统和常规保护系统进行全寿命周期费用的分析和比较,从而验证了所建全寿命周期费用模型对变电站建设进行决策分析的实用性和可行性。

According to the characteristics of costs of substation in different phases, this paper uses the analysis method based on Life Cycle Costs（LCC） to carry on the decision analysis on substation construction. Life Cycle Costs of substation are divided into three parts：investment cost, operation cost and failure cost. The cost estimation model of LCC is set up, and the modification on the basis of runtime, annual interest rate and inflation rate is carried out,as well as the sensitive factor analysis. Taking a 220kV substation as the example,it analyzes and compares integrated automatic system and general protective system to verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed life cycle cost model.