基于环境约束的电源结构优化研究

Power structure optimization based on environmental constraints

为实现经济增长、满足电力需求和环境保护的目标,运用多目标规划的理论和方法,构建了社会经济与环境协调发展的电源结构优化模型,运用此模型对2010年中国电源结构进行了优化,对基于不同情景预测的2015、2020年用电量需求下污染物排放量的情况进行了分析。研究表明:在现有装机容量的前提下,以经济优先对电源结构进行优化,火力发电所占比例需降至82.04%,水电所占比例达到14.98%,烟尘排放量需降至0.894g/(kW·h)才能达到总量减排10%的目标。以环境优先的电源结构优化,在电力供应总量满足全社会用电量的基础上,火电所占比例需大幅下降,降至61.11%,水电所占比例升至35.03%。

To achieve the objectives of economic growth, electricity demand and environmental protection, the muhi-ohjective planning theories and methods were used in this paper, and a power structure optimization model with the coordinated development of socio-economie, environmental was buih and used to optimize China＇s power structure of 2010, and then analyze the pollution emissions of 2015,2020 based on forecasts of different scenarios of electricity demand. The results show that to meet the total reduction amount of major pollutants during the Eleventh Five-Year period, the proportion of thermal power and hydro-power would be 82.04% and 14.98% respectively, the emissions performance of dust has to be reduced to 0.894 g/（kW, h） based on economic priorities; if based on environmental priorities, the proportion of thermal power shonhl be lower to 61.11%. and that of hydro-electricity he raised to 35.03%.