洪水灾害对区域可持续发展的长期影响分析

Analysis of Long-Term Flood Impact on Sustainability

提出洪水灾害对可持续发展的长期影响指数(LFIS)。LFIS主要考虑洪水灾害对社会-经济-环境复合系统多方面多层次的影响,是对现行的以洪灾经济损失评价及简单的经济损失弥补为目的的洪灾风险评价理念的拓展与补充。采用快速评估方法,以县城区划为评估单元,进行LFIS的评价分级。根据LFIS的评价结果,将评估单元划分为高、较高、中等、较低和低5类,并从区域、省份和城市的角度分别对LFIS的分异规律进行讨论。研究结果可更好地服务于可持续背景下更为广泛的综合防洪减灾规划与决策。

A new index of long-term flood impact on sustainability （LFIS） was proposed, considering the multiple impact of flood on the complex social-economic-environmental system. This index extended the current economic loss based flood risk analysis into a more comprehensive perspective. Rapid assessment approach was applied for the evaluation and ranking of LFIS using 2359 countes/cities of China's Mainland as mapping units. The China's Mainland was zoned into five kinds of regions, classified in terms of different grades of LFIS, i.e. very high, high, medium, low and very low. The spatial characteristics of LFIS were discussed for regional, provincial and urban levels. The results are helpful for the decision-making of integrated sustainable flood prevention, mitigation and recovery.