黑河流域水资源人口承载力仿真模拟预测

A Simulation of Population Bearing Capacity of Heihe River Valley

针对黑河流域水资源系统所具有的复杂系统特征，在对该系统进行结构和因果关系分析的基础上，将水资源承载力系统划分为生活用水、农业用水、工业用水、水资源供给、水污染5个子系统。利用系统动力学建立了黑河流域水资源承载力模型，通过仿真水资源供需情况，比较分析了3种不同方案下令后20年中黑河流域水资源所能承载的人口数量。

Considering the complexity of water resources its structure as well as cause and effect, the paper divides system of Heihe River Valley and based on an analysis of the water resources system into five subsystems as water for daily use, water for agriculture, water for industry, water resources supply and water pollution. The thesis also establishes water resources bearing capacity models by making use of systematic dynamics, and makes a comparison of three proposals for the population bearing capacity of Heihe River Valley in next twenty years based on the simulation of water supply and demand.