国家信用风险评估模型

Research on Evaluation Model of the Risk of Country Credit

通过分析影响国家信用的风险因素,合理选取影响国家信用风险指标.构建了基于GA-PSO混合规划算法的国家信用风险评估模型,运用该模型对部分国家信用风险进行信用评级.研究结果表明:模型评估结果与权威机构的评估拟合度较好,一致性接近88.8%.

The factors which influence the state credit are analyzed in this paper. An evaluation model of country credit is established by GA-PSO optimize algorithm. The connotation and the extension of the country system under the new economy environment are defined and the risk of the country credit is rated. The findings indicated. The relationship between country credit and the political situation, the social present situation, the actual GDP rate of increment, the average per person GDP rate of increment, the inflation rate and paid debt redemption ratio were nonlinear. The results of this paper are instructive for the export enterprise to evaluate and manage the risk of country credit