财政支出对地区经济增长影响的计量分析

Financial Expenditure of the Impact of Economic Growth in the Region of the Quantitative Analysis

将安徽省的财政支出按结构分成经济建设、社会文教、国防费用、行政管理及其他费用五个部分,使用向量自回归(VAR)模型等研究方法,通过建立经济计量模型及实证分析,对其中经济建设、社会文教、国防费用及行政管理的支出比重对地区经济增长的影响进行实证分析研究。实证分析结果显示经济建设支出、社会文教费用支出和行政管理费支出对经济增长的影响都是由负到正,这说明需要一段时间的过渡才能对经济增长产生促进作用。国防费用总的影响为负。据此,本文提出优化财政支出结构促进经济增长的政策建议。

This article Anhui Province＇s expenditure will divide into the economic development, the social culture and education, the national defense expense, the administration and other expense five parts according to the structure, the use of vector autoregressive （VAR） model, through the establishment economy measurement model and the empirical analysis, to economic development, the social culture and education, the national defense expense and the administration disbursement proportion the influence which will grow in the region to carry out empirical analysis. Empiri- cal analysis revealed that expenditure on economic construction, social culture and education and administrative expenses, expenses of the impact on economic growth from negative to positive, indicating the transition will take some time before we can have a role in promoting economic growth. The total impact of defense spending was negative. Accordingly, this paper to optimize the structure of financial expenditure for economic growth policy recommendations.