武汉蔡甸区近期城镇住房需求规模预测

A Prediction to the Housing Requirement Scale in Caidian Town

本文以武汉市蔡甸区为例,在所需直接数据不全的情况下,推导出所需相关数据。在SWOT分析的基础上,根据需求主体预测模型、前几年购房客户来源及商品房销售面积,分别预测近期新增住房需求总量。三种预测方法各具特点,得出的预测结果也不同。考虑到蔡甸区住房发展受房地产市场波动、城市化发展速度、主城区人口疏散强度、其它区域的竞争等因素的影响较大,其规模预测所需基本数据往往具有一定的可变性,所以,预测结果具有定性与定量之间的特征,因此综合三种预测结果作为最终预测结果。其预测数据可以作为相关工作的指导性依据,但可以根据实际情况的发展,留有调节余地。

Taking Caidian Town of Wuhan City as an example, deduct the required data when many ot them could not be obtained from authority departments. On the basis of SWOT study, and according to the model of requirement subjects, the customer sources in recent years, the sales volume of real estate in recent years, the housing requirement scale of the coming years are predicted respectively. Because these three prediction methods are different, so the results of the analysis are also different. Due to the housing development of Caidian Town is always affected to great extent by the market fluctuation of real estate, the developing pace of urbanization, the scale of population evacuation from main city zone, the competition from other districts etc. , the fundamental data that the scale prediction had to take as basis are not always determinate, therefore, the results of the prediction is intermediate between qualitative and quantitative. Therefore, it is necessary to average the results of these three as the final result. The result can be a guiding to the related works, but not a determinate instruction.