北京地区突发性地质灾害易发区划及危险度评价

Regionalization of susceptibility and hazard assessment on unexpected geological disasters in Beijing

本文在认真分析北京地区地质环境的主要特征及地质灾害发育现状基础上,对泥石流、采空塌陷以及崩滑塌等突发性灾害的发育特征、分布规律及其主要影响因素进行了深入地分析、研究和探讨。采用袭扰系数法,对区内突发性地质灾害的易发程度进行了综合评价预测,圈定出突发性地质灾害高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区。采用模糊综合评判模型,对影响地质灾害演变趋势的降雨条件、人类工程活动、地震活动以及区域岩组结构等因素进行了综合评判,并依据突发性地质灾害的易发区划结果及其主要影响因素的综合评判结果,对其演变的危险程度进行了评价,将北京地区划分出突发性地质灾害高风险区、中风险区以及低风险区。这对政府相关部门制定减灾防灾、资源开发、环境整治、经济建设和社会发展等规划具有一定的参考作用。

Based on carefully analyzing the main features of the geological environment and geological hazards in Beijing, this paper analyzed and studied the development, distribution and influencing factors of unexpected geological disasters such as the debris flow, mined- out collapse and slump. Relied on the harassment factor method, the prone degrees of unexpected geological hazards were comprehensively evaluated, the regionalization of high, moderate, mild and poor prone degrees of unexpected geological disasters was made. Used the fuzzy message model, rainfalls, human engineering activities, earthquakes and structures of rock groups impacting the trends in the evolution of geological hazards were comprehensively judged; the risk degrees of geological hazards were evaluated and forecasted, the high, moderate and mild risk degrees of unexpected geological disasters in Beijing were regionalized. The obtained result has some reference value for the relevant government departments to formulate planning on disaster prevention, resources exploitation, environmental improvement, economic construction and social development.