小麦贸易格局的演变对中国粮食安全的影响——基于“粮食禁运”的理论分析

The Influence of Evolution of Wheat Commerce Pattern to Chinese Grain Security——Based On Theory Assay of Grain Embargo

当前影响中国粮食安全的因素主要有两方面,生产和贸易。从近年来的生产来看,产量基本保持稳定,因此影响中国粮食安全的重要因素将是国际贸易,而对国际贸易影响较大的因素主要有国际贸易格局的变化。基于此,从澳大利亚开放粮食市场出发,分析由此可能带来的贸易格局的演变,从粮食禁运的视角分析其对中国粮食安全的影响,通过建立博弈模型进行理论分析,得出新的小麦贸易格局将对中国的粮食安全产生诸多不利影响。

Currently production and commerce are two factors of affect china grain security .From the past few years of product,the outputs keep up stability,so the important factor of affect Chinese grain security will be the international commerce,and the change of international commerce pattern will have important impact to the international commerce.Based on this,the article will begin from Australian grain market open,assay the evolution of commerce pattern,and assay how this thing will affect china grain security from the aspect of grain embargo.This article found game model to carry theory assay,finally this article get the conclusion that the new wheat commerce pattern will bring much disadvantage importance to china grain security.