能源消费对中国工业化进程制约作用的实证分析

Energy use to Chinese industrialization Advancement Restriction Function Empirical Analysis

本文运用经济计量方法,从不同角度全面考察了工业部门能源强度的变化趋势及工业化水平与能源需求之间的关联关系。结果表明,工业部门能源消费强度随中国工业化进程的推进呈下降趋势;中国工业化水平与能源消费之间存在长期均衡关系,这种长期均衡关系的短期调整幅度较大;中国工业化水平对能源需求的贡献份额较小,能源需求不会成为制约我国工业化进程中的瓶颈。从目前实际出发,对短期调整效应较弱的工业部门实行节能技术改造,走适合我国基本国情的、有助于资源节约型的新型工业化道路是目前及今后一个时期的必然选择。

This article utilizes the econometric technique, inspected between the Industry sector energy intensity change tendency and the industrialization level and the energy need incidence relation comprehensively from the different angle. The result indicated that the Industry sector energy use intensity pushes along with the Chinese industrialization advancement offers the declining trend. Between the Chinese industrialization level and the energy use has the long-term balanced relations, this kind of longterm balanced relations＇ short-term tuning band is big. The Chinese industrialization level is small to energy need＇s contribution share, the energy need will not become restricts in our country industrialization advancement the bottleneck. From present actual embarks, implements the energy conservation technological transformations to the short-term adjustment effect small Industry sector, walks suits our country fundamental realities of the country, to be helpful in the resource conservation the new industrialization path is present and the coming period choice inevitably.