中国产业升级的大国雁阵模型分析

Flying Geese within Borders:How China Sustains Its Labor-intensive Industries?

金融危机对中国产生的冲击,与各地区、产业乃至企业本身存在的结构问题是相关的,即在危机条件下,过时的增长方式、产业结构和技术选择最先遭到冲击。因此,摆脱危机并实现经济持续增长的关键在于重新塑造地区发展模式。在金融危机背景下以及大国假设下,本文延伸了雁阵模型的解释和预测范围,从经验上实证了本世纪以来中国地区制造业增长和生产率提高的格局变化,即东北和中部地区比沿海地区有更快的全要素生产率提高速度和贡献率。通过实现产业在东中西部三类地区的重新布局,即沿海地区的产业升级、转移与中西部地区的产业承接,可以在中西部地区回归其劳动力丰富比较优势的同时,保持劳动密集型产业在中国的延续。

During the current global financial crisis, regions, sectors, and enterprises with the outdated growth pattern, industrial structure inconsistent with their comparative advantages, and technological structure hanging behind the development stage were first exposed to the economic shocks. The way out thus is to reshape the economy＇s regional development pattern based on comparative advantage. Against the background of financial crisis and under the assumption of large economy, this paper extends flying geese paradigm and applies it to interpret regional growth pattern of the Chinese economy-namely, a leapfreg type industrial structure evolution among regions. Empirical results show that the growth and contribution rates of total factor productivity in manufacturing in the Northeastern and Central provinces tended to be significantly higher than that in Eastern provinces, whereas that doesn＇t necessarily imply that the new pattern in better productivity-performing regions is consistent with their comparative advantages induced by endowments of production factors. The paper suggests that by relocating the industries among eastern, central and western regions-that is, upgrading industries in eastern region while transforming labor-intensive industries to central and western regions, the industrial structure in the interior regions shall move towards to their comparative advantages and thus the labor-intensive industries shall be sustained in China.