中国宏观经济走势分析的逻辑与方法探讨

The Logic and Method on Macroeconomic Analysis of Chinese Economy

本文在总结已有研究成果基础上,通过对中国宏观经济走势分析逻辑和方法的研讨,着重分析和阐明了三个基本要点:清晰把握中国经济发展所处阶段以及与其相适应的GDP均衡目标增长率,是展开宏观经济走势分析与预测的逻辑起点;科学确定与上述逻辑起点相吻合的适度通货膨胀区间,是正确进行中国宏观经济走势分析与预测的重要基础;深入阐明与上述逻辑起点和适度通货膨胀区间相匹配的货币供给增长倍数,是搞好中国宏观经济走势分析与预测的关键环节。弄清上述三个基本要点,对于正确进行宏观经济走势分析,保证宏观调控政策的科学选择和有效实施,具有特别重要的意义。

Based on the past research, by discussing the logic and method on macroeconomic analysis of Chinese economy, thispaper analyze and illuminate three basic key points： 1 ） Grasping the current stage of Chinese economy development andcorresponding Equilibrium Target Growth Rate of GDP, which is the logic start point of macroeconomic analysis and forecast; 2）Ascertaining the rational acceptable inflation rate zone inosculate corresponding with the logic start, is the key basis to make macroeconomic analysis and forecast on Chinese economy in the right way; 3） Illuminating the multiple of money supply growthcorresponding with the logic start and the acceptable inflation rate zone, is the vital step to make macroeconomic analysis and forecast on Chinese economy. It is vital to understanding the three basic key points in order to make macroeconomic analysis andforecast correctly and ensure the scientific selecting and efficient implementing of the macroeconomic regulating policies.