我国货币政策对通货膨胀与产出的非对称反应

The Asymmetric Reaction of Monetary Policy to Inflation and Real GDP in China

本文基于我国货币政策在通胀水平和增长速度不同的情况下对通胀和产出具有非线性非对称反应的实际背景,分别以经济增长率和通胀率为阈值变量建立非线性货币政策反应函数,估计结果表明:(1)我国货币政策对通胀和产出的反应随着预期的通胀率和经济增长率的变化而有显著的非线性非对称性,非线性转换形式由逻辑函数刻画,转换速度较快且显著;(2)货币政策对通货膨胀率的调节区间为2.96%—3.23%,对经济增长率的调节区间为8.52%—8.83%;(3)当经济增长率或通胀率高于调节区间的上限,央行应以通货膨胀为主要调节目标,实施从紧的货币政策;当经济增长率或通胀率低于调节区间的下限时,央行应以经济增长为主要调节目标,实施适度宽松的货币政策。2009年我国应继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,并以保增长为主要目标。

This paper, based on the situation of asymmetric reaction of monetary policy to inflation and real GDP, constructs nonlinear monetary policy reaction function using economic growth rate and inflation rate as threshold variable. The results show that the reaction of monetary policy to inflation and GDP gap, which based on situation of expectation inflation and expectation economic growth rate, is nonlinear and asymmetric, the nonlinear switch can be depicted by logist function, and the speed of switch is quick and notability. The adjustment range of economic growth rate within 8.52 %-8.83 %, and the adjustment range of inflation rate within 2.96%-3.23% . Monetary policy should be loose and more responsive to inflation when inflation rate and economic growth rate is further from the adjustment range, on the other hand, monetary policy should be tighten and more responsive to economic growth when inflation rate and economic growth rate is under the adjustment range. China should take loose monetary policies and focus on stimulating economic growth in 2009.