国债的支出方向对国债的代际负担影响研究

Research on the Effect of the Direction of National Debts on Inter-generational Burden

本文从建设性支出和经常性支出两个方面与代际负担的关系进行了理论分析,然后通过协整分析和Granger因果关系检验实证地分析了我国国债的支出方向,得出在1994年后国债与建设性支出是协整的,Granger因果关系检验结果显示,建设性支出是国债净发行的Granger原因。我国国债是用在了建设性支出方面,并没有产生代际负担和影响代际公平,从而解除了人们的心中疑惑。

The paper theoretically analyzes the relationship between constructive and current expenditures and intergenerational burden, then by co-integration analysis and Granger causality test empirically analyzes the direction of national debts, and concludes that after 1994 the national debts and constructive expenditures are co-integrate, Granger causality test shows that the constructive expenditure is the Granger causality of national debts. Chinese national debts are used in a constructive expenditure side, not producing any inter-generational burden and impact of intergenerational equity, thereby lifting the hearts of people puzzled.