区域定量风险评价理论探讨

Study on the Theory of Area Quantitative Risk Assessment

基于区域风险评价的特点,给出区域定量风险评价的定义;提出区域定量风险评价的模式;基于事故后果分析方法和灰关联度理论,提出分析项目间风险关联性大小的分析方法。通过对风险关联度计算结果利用曲线进行圆滑处理,将其关联性大小分为4级;在确定不同风险关联度级别的同时,还可以精确反映出同一级别之间及相邻级别之间的相关性差异水平。通过对沈阳化工园区的实际应用,验证了该方法的可行性及其应用效果。风险关联性理论在园区区域定量风险评价中具有一定的实用价值。

The quantitative area risk assessment, and the model of and the theory of grey correlation, risk assessment （QARA） is defined based on the characteristics of area QARA is proposed. Based on the accident consequence analysis method the risk correlation analysis method, used to analyze the risk correlation value among projects, is presented. And, the value is divided into four levels according to smooth handling result. So, it could not only determine the correlation level of different risks, but also accurately refleet the differences of correlation values in the same level or in adjacent level. Finally, this method is demonstrated to be feasible with Shenyang Chemical Industrial Park as an actual example. The theory of risk correlation is very practical in QARA.