从结构角度看中国出口贸易的增长波动

An Structural Analysis of the Fluctuations of Export Growth in China

本文基于经济周期理论,借助HP滤波法从总体和结构两个角度分析了中国的出口增长波动,结果表明:中国出口波动中,原料密集型产品出口增长速度最慢,劳动密集型产品出口增长持续性最强;资本密集型产品出口增长扩张收缩能力最强,增长最不稳定;易模仿的研发密集型产品出口增长最快,难模仿的研发密集型产品出口增长速度较快。总出口增长波动和上述五类产品出口增长波动之间存在长期均衡关系。

Based on the business cycle theory, the paper analyzes the fluctuations of export growth in China from two angles such as overall and structure by using the method of Hordrick- Prescott. The results are as followings ： the fluctuation of China＇ s total exports growth reveals an upward expansion trend and the fluctuation is increasing obviously. From the structure layer, the increasing ratio of raw material intensive goods is slowest, the labor- intensive goods export growth endurance is strongest. The ability of expansion and contraction of the capital- intensity goods export growth is strongest, but the growth is the most unstable. The export growth ratio of easy- to- imitate research- intensive goods is quickest and that of difficult- to- imitate research - intensive goods is relatively quick. The Error Correction Model between the total export growth and that of structural growth indicates that the fluctuation of total export growth and that of five kinds of goods has the long- term balanced relations.