甘肃省人口流动空间格局和影响因素的ESDA分析

Analysis of Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors on Population Mobility in Gansu Province Based on ESDA

基于ESDA空间自相关分析,在GIS软件和空间统计分析软件的支持下,利用甘肃省2003-2007年市域流动人口数据,对甘肃省市域人口流动空间格局进行实证分析。在此基础上,对经济发展水平、医疗条件、投资能力、产业结构、城乡收入差距等影响人口流动的因子运用空间计量模型进行定量检验。结果表明:甘肃省人口流动在地理上存在集聚现象,呈现出西高东低、北高南低的格局;空间地理因素对人口流动有显著的影响;产业结构对人口流动的影响作用最显著;医疗条件对人口流动直接影响较小。

By means of spatial autocorrelation analyses of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis （ESDA）, this paper investigates the spatial pattern of population mobility at the city level in Gansu by analyzing floating population data during 2003 - 2007, with the support of GIS and spatial statistics analysis software. On these basis, the paper quantitatively identified impacts of the economy development, industrial structure, income differential, capital input and health care on population mobility, using spatial econometric models. Results show that population mobility in Gansu exists the geographical concentration and there is a significant impact of spatial factor on population mobility;The population mobility distribution shows a tendency of higher in the west and lower in the east; the direct impacts of health care on the population mobility are less, but the impact of industrial structure on the population mobility is the most significant.