IPCC-AR4模式资料对东北地区气候及可利用水资源的预估研究

Prediction of Climate and Utilizable Precipitation Change in Northeast China by Using IPCC-AR4 Model Data

利用IPCC—AR4模式对未来预估的结果，分析了在不同排放情景下（A2、B1）中国东北地区气候和水资源变化的主要特征。研究表明：东北地区气温和降水随时间均呈上升趋势，气温的上升趋势非常明显，降水虽然也增加，但变化的趋势很弱，在A2情景下，气温和降水的变化幅度要大于B1情景。未来水资源的变化情况表明，蒸发量的变化最明显，在A2情景下增加了12．3％-14．4％，其次是地表径流，在A2情景下减少了4％-4．7％，而浅层和深层含水量虽然也是呈减少趋势，但是变化相对较小。

By adopting IPCC-ARd results, the main characteristics of climate and the variation of utilizable precipitation in Northeast China under A1B, A2 and B1 greenhouse gases emission scenarios are analyzed. Results show that the temperature and precipitation in Northeast China present increasing tendency, and the tendency of temperature is more obvious. The extents of temperature and precipitation variation under A2 scenario are larger than those under B1 scenario. The future utilizable precipitation change shows that the variation of surface potential evaporation is most obvious, which increases 12. 3% - 14. 4% under A2 scenario. The variation extent of surface runoff ranks the second, which decreases 4% -4. 7% under the same scenario. The 0- 10cm soil moisture content and 10 -200 cm soil moisture content are decreasing unobvious.