美国贸易逆差对世界流动性的影响

The Influence of Trade Deficit in the United States on the Global Liquidity

随着次贷危机的发展,世界流动性过剩转变为流动性紧缩。本文运用美国主要贸易伙伴国的面板数据进行分析,发现美国贸易逆差是其向全球输出流动性的一个主要渠道,是前一阶段全球货币流动性过剩形成的主要原因之一,并带来了全球资产价格上涨。而美国消费下降、贸易逆差减小,则进一步恶化了世界流动性紧缩程度。世界主要经济体必须从优化贸易结构、调整汇率制度、加强全球宏观政策协调等多方面入手,解决流动性过剩或紧缩问题产生的根源。

With the development of sub-loan crisis, the global Liquidity situation has changed. Using the panel data of the U.S. trade partnerships, the author analyzes the relation of trade deficit of US and global liquidity. The author concludes that the trade surplus with US will increase the trade partnerships domestic liquidity, and the trade deficit of US is an important channel of liquidity outflow, and it is also one of the key causes of the previous global liquidity surplus which led to the price increase of global asset. And the decreasing of consumption in the U.S. and the unfavorable balance of trade also deteriorates the global liquidity crunch. We must account for it by optimizing trade structure, adjusting exchange rate police, and strengthening coordination of global macro economic policy to solve the problems.