摘要
运用Eviews 5.0软件分别对1978-2005年广东省GDP、第二产业和第三产业的增加值进行逻辑曲线回归,利用2005年全国31个省市的统计资料为样本数据,拟合三次产业的结构模型。对未来广东GDP和第二、三产业的发展及三次产业结构的发展进行预测,发现三次产业在国民经济中的比重与国民经济发展水平存在非线性相关关系。以全国三次产业的结构发展作为参照,提出调整第二产业和加快第三产业发展的对策。
With the data of GDP added values of the secondary and tertiary industries from 1978 to 2005 in Guangdong Province,logical regression models are derived by using platform Eviews 5.0.Also a fitted structural model for the three industries is obtained based on the 2005 s statistics data from the 31 provinces and metropolitans in China.It is found that the trajectories of the ratio of the three industries in national economy are not linear,but non-linear.Based on this finding and with the development of three-industry structure in the whole country as a reference, suggestions are presented to adjust the secondary industry and speed up the tertiary industry in Guangdong Province by forecasting with the obtained models.
出处
《工业工程》
北大核心
2009年第4期46-51,共6页
Industrial Engineering Journal
关键词
第二产业
第三产业
产业结构
对策
secondary industry
tertiary industry
industrial structure
countermeasure
