基于同质面板因果检验的住宅增量与存量市场价格关系研究——以武汉市为例

Analysis on Relationship of Housing Price between Incremental and Stock Market with Homogenous Non-Causality Test in Panel Data——A Case of Wuhan

本文以武汉市8个城区29个季度的住宅增量、存量销售价格数据为样本,运用面板数据G ranger因果关系检验、随机效应变截距模型,研究了住宅增量市场与存量市场的价格关系。结果表明,在以住宅增量交易为主导的房地产市场中,增量住宅的价格对存量住宅的价格产生了显著的影响,增量住宅价格变量是存量住宅价格变量的G ranger原因,反之则不成立;增量住宅价格每上升1%会带动存量住宅价格上升1.06%,增量住宅销售价格的上升,促进了存量住宅销售价格的快速上升。政府在严控房地产投机行为的同时,需要从中介制度、金融、税收等方面完善住宅交易制度,促进住宅增量市场向存量市场的转变。

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship of housing prices between incremental and stock market by using the housing price data of eight districts in Wuhan over the period 2001Q1 to 2008Q1. The Granger Causality Tests and individual- mean corrected regression model with random effects in panel data were employed. The empirical study shows that the housing price in incremental market Granger - cause stock housing prices but not the other way around. The housing price in incremental market rises 1 percent, the price in stock market will increase 1.06 percent. The government should control the real estate speculation strictly, at the same time, the transaction policies of agent, finance, taxation, which will promote incremental change to stock market, should be improved.