台湾地区频率分析适用性之研究

Research on the Applicability of Frequency Analysis in the Taiwan Region

台湾地区地形、环境特殊,再加上气候等因素,导致灾害频繁,而发生灾害之主因以降雨为主,故针对年降水量、1d最大降水量及1h最大降水量进行频率分析。依台湾中央气象站所设21个气象站分北、中、南、东4区域为分析对象,采用常态分布法、对数常态分布法、极端值第一类分布、皮尔逊第三类分布及对数皮尔逊第三类分布5种分布进行分析。由研究结果得知:无论是年降雨量、1d最大降雨量或1h最大降雨量,台湾全区皆建议采用对数皮尔逊第三类分布作为频率分析之推估。

The circumstance of special terrain and environment with the climate factors resulted in the frequent disasters in Taiwan Region. Among which, the rainfall is the primary cause of those disasters; therefore, the frequency analysis is conducted aiming at the annual precipitation, daily maximum precipitation and hour maximum precipitation. By adoption of five distribution methods including the normal distribution, log normal distribution, extreme value first class distribution, Pearson third class distribution and log Pearson third class distribution methods, there are 21 weather stations established by the Taiwan Central Meteorological Station as the objects for the frequency analysis, which were divided into four regions （north, middle, south and east）. The research result shows that no matter the annual precipitation, daily maximum precipitation or hour maximum precipitation, it is recommended to use the log Pearson third class distribution method as the deduce and estimate for the frequency analysis in Taiwan Region.