村域尺度上的农村用水量预测研究——以河南省镇平县为例

The Predictive Analysis of Rural Water Consumption on Village-scale Domain: A Case of Zhenping County,Henan Province

农村用水量预测是农村饮水工程规划的基础。而农村用水历史数据缺乏,人口流动大,农户饲养畜禽的种类和数量年际变化大等因素为建立农村用水量预测模型带来了困难。通过问卷调查获得第一手资料,根据生活用水量、畜禽饲养用水量、企业用水量、管网漏失和未预见水量4项指标建立农村用水量预测综合模型,并在软件ARCGIS9.0中实现此模型,分析了镇平县农村需水量和缺水严重程度的空间差异及其原因。研究发现,镇平县农村需水量南多北少,中南部缺水比较严重。最后,根据镇平县农村缺水严重程度确定了23个农村重点饮水工程规划村,从而为农村饮水工程规划提供了较为准确的空间决策支持。

The prediction of water consumption is fundamental for drinking water planning in rural areas. However, due to the lack of historical consumption data, mass work force movement and yearly variation of live stock farming in rural China, it is difficult to predict the volume of water consumption using existing models. Conse- quently, the authors introduce a practical prediction model based on the questionnaire investigation of the water for living, the water for livestock, the water for enterprise and the leak of pipe network and unpredictable water. Using ArcGIS 9.0, the model is implemented, and the spatial variations and their reasons of village-level predictive water consumptions and of the supply gaps in Zhenping County are presented. It is found that the southern villages consume more water than the northern and the central-southern region has wide supply gaps. Based on the findings, 23 villages are identified having top priority in regional drinking water planning. The authors argue that GIS technology and the practical prediction model introduced in this paper have potentials in rural drinking water planning.