华北地区宋元明清疫情及相关因素分析

Analysis on epidemic situation and correlation factor on song,Yuan,Ming and Qing dynasty in northern China Area

以华北地区宋元明清时期疫情史料为依托,采用文献学、流行病学和统计学方法,探讨华北地区宋元明清疫情的时空分布及相关因素。结果显示:华北地区宋元明清疫情随年代更迭呈上升趋势,明清时期为疫情高发期;疫情与干支年分布有相关性,以辛巳年累计疫次最多。华北地区古代疫情主要集中在山西和河北,但在疫情发展中跨省市(地县)的大疫情也时有发生。疫情的发生与自然因素和社会因素有密切相关性,旱灾、水灾是引发疫情的最主要自然因素,饥荒、战乱、人口流动和人群密集是影响疫情的主要社会因素。提示加强中医药防疫特色研究(如运气学说),加强华北地区疫情的联防联控研究,以及开展多学科协作研究,对现代传染病的防控具有重要意义。

To explore the epidemic situation and the correlation factor on Song, Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasty in Northern China area by using bibliography, epidemiology and statistics methods. There was a increasing tendency from Song, Yuan, Ming to Qing dynasty in northern China area. The Ming-Qing dynasty was high-developing period. There was a correlation between epidemic situation and Gan-zhi distribution. The epidemic diseases in Northern China area were mainly developed in Shanxi and Hebei Province. The development of epidemic situation was closely correlated with natural factor and social factor. The drought and flood were the main natural factors. The famine, chaos caused by war, population circulation and concentration were the main social factor.