生态环境保护约束下的土地利用变化模拟——以昆明市滇池流域为例

Study of land use simulation on the condition of ecological environment protection——A case research in Dianchi Basin in Kunming

土地利用变化模拟是土地利用研究的重要方法,生态环境保护是土地利用的重要约束条件。笔者通过建立多因素综合判别模型,分析并量化土地利用变化的生态环境约束,以此作为SLEUTH模型的限制因素层控制城市扩展和土地利用变化,从而实现了土地利用变化模型与生态环境分析的松散耦合,有效模拟生态环境保护下的城市扩展和土地利用变化。将该模型应用于滇池流域,对比分析2005年土地利用模拟结果与实际情况,结果表明,现行土地利用规划体现了生态环境保护原则,但仍存在不合理的土地利用布局。

Land use simulation is an important methodology to study land use change. Ecological environment protection is a major constraint of land use. In this paper, we built a multi-factor comprehensive decision model to analysis ecological environment. The result was imported into SLEUTH model to constrain land use change, therefore, realized a loose couple of urban growth model and ecological environment analysis and successfully simulated urban expansion on the condition of effective ecological environment protection. The model was adopted to simulate land-use in Dianchi basin. The simulated result and the actual land-use in 2005 were compared, it indicated that current land use plan had taken ecological environment protection into account, although unreasonable land use still remained. The simulated result pro- posed a relatively new foundation to evaluate the existing land use situation and assisted future land use planning.