甘肃中部地区水资源承载能力与可持续发展

Study on water resources carrying capacity and sustainable development in central Gansu province

以甘肃省中部地区6县区为研究区域,以多目标情景分析方法对该区域规划年(2020年)的水资源承载能力进行分析和研究。研究中结合当地经济社会发展规划,利用不同情景基础的多目标分析方法,建立几种情景规划方案。并结合地区实际发展情况,建立水资源承载能力评价方案,最终确定A1+B1方案作为选择方案。运行结果表明:该方案符合研究区经济社会发展规划要求。并依据评价结果提出了研究区可持续发展方案,这对研究区未来规划年水资源优化配置将具有实际指导意义。

The water resources carrying capacity of six counties in central Gansu Province was analyzed using the multi- objective scenario analysis method for the target year of 2020. In accordance with the plan for regional social and economic development, several scenario schemes were set up by applying the multi-objective scenario analysis method with different scenario bases. The evaluation schemes were also established according to the actual status of regional development. The A1 ＋ B1 scheme was selected as the best. The results from the operating scheme proved that the selected scheme was in keeping with the planned requirements of regional social and economic development. A regional sustainable development scheme was proposed based on the evaluation results, which were useful and significant to the optimal allocation of water resources in the study region for a future target year.