基于IPEA方程思想的江苏省节能潜力分析

Analysis of energy saving potentiality of Jiangsu Province based on the theory of IPEA Equation

基于IPEA方程思想,对江苏省能源消耗进行了历史回顾,预测了2010年、2015年和2020年的江苏省能源消耗总量;通过产业结构演进—能源消费和产业结构演进—单位GDP能耗两个模型,分析了1985年以来江苏省产业结构演进与能源消费和单位GDP能耗的关系,结果显示,产业结构演进与一次能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗之间存在着密切的关系,通过IPEA方程分析和预测可知,在按GDP年递增率0.10的情况下,如果单位GDP能耗递减率低于0.0909,能源消耗量会增加。在今后的发展中,江苏省应继续通过一系列产业结构调整和优化措施,降低能源消耗。

The curve of environment impact in the process of economic growth in developed countries was compared to ＂environmental mountain＂.Developing countries should go through the ＂environmental mountain＂ on the halfway up the mountain in order to avoid the more serious environment problems once happened in developed countries.Based on the IPEA equation this paper reviews the historical energy consumption and anticipates the energy consumption of Jiangsu province in the year 2010,2015,2020 under the different conditions of assumption.Using industrial structure evolution-energy consumption relating model and industrial structure evolution-GDP energy intensity relating model,the relationship between industrial structure evolution and energy consumption,and GDP energy intensity of Jiangsu province from 1985 is analyzed,the result indicated that there was close relationship between industrial structure evolution and total energy consumption,and GDP energy intensity.Under the assumption of the annual growth rate of GDP is 0.10,if the decreasing rate of GDP energy intensity less than 0.0909,the total energy consumption of Jiangsu province will increase.A series of measures of industrial structure adjustment and optimization should be done to reduce energy consumption in the future development of Jiangsu Province.