基于VAR模型的我国货币政策有效性实证分析

The Positive Analysis to the Validity of China's Monetary Policy Based on VAR Model

货币政策有效性包括工具的有效性、传导机制的效率以及能否达到预期目标,而评价货币政策是否有效的最终依据是货币政策的实施效果。文章构建了测度货币政策有效性的VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数分析了相关变量对CPI影响的强弱程度及其对货币政策发生效力的滞后时间,认为我国的货币政策是基本有效的,货币供给量M0是近期货币政策中较合适的货币政策工具,并提出了将价格型工具和数量型工具混合使用以实现货币政策预期目标的建议。

The validity of monetary policy comprises the validity of the tools, the efficiency of the conduction mechanism ＆ whether it can attain the anticipated objective, but the final basis to evaluate the validity of monetary policy is the practical effect of monetary policy. This paper establishes a VAR model to estimate the validity of monetary policy; then by utilizing the impulse response function, it analyses how hard the correlative variable effects CPI and the hysterical time of that the correlative variable goes into effect the monetary policy. It shows that China＇s monetary policy is effective basically, the money supply M0 is the quite appropriate tools in recent monetary policy, and this paper proposes mixing up the pricing tools and the quantity tools to achieve the anticipated objective of the monetary policy.