政策跨时搭配与股价的动态调整:固定汇率制度分析

Analysis of Inter-temporal Policy Mix and the Dynamic Adjustment of Stock Prices Based on the Fixed Exchange Rate System

在现实社会中,政府面对经济问题时,除了采取货币政策外,也会考虑财政政策,甚至两种政策会相互搭配运用。在以前的文献中,有关政策跨时搭配的文献,不但没有考虑到股票市场,且仅局限于浮动汇率制度的题材。因此,我们将股票市场纳入模型中,并以固定汇率制度来进行分析,探讨政策跨时搭配对股价与外汇存量的动态调整。研究发现:首先,在固定汇率制度下,若政府实施扩张性财政政策,就长期均衡而言,会使得股价与外汇存量都增加;若实施扩张国内信用,在长期均衡下,对股价没有影响,但会导致外汇存量减少,结论与Swoboda(1972)一致,表示货币在长期不具中立性。其次,在政策跨时搭配的情况下,若政府先执行扩张国内信用,再执行扩张性财政政策,在长期内会造成股价上涨,而外汇存量则可能增加亦可能减少,这要看货币所得弹性的相对大小。

This paper makes an analysis of inter-temporal policy mix and the dynamic adjustment of stock prices based on the fixed exchange rate system. It finds that, firstly, in a fixed exchange rate system, if the government adopts an expansionary fiscal policy, it will lead to the increase of both stock prices and foreign exchange reserves in the long term balance while if the government implements a domestic credit expansionary policy, it will have no effect on stock prices but may result in the decrease of foreign exchange reserves in the long term balance, which is in conformity with the conclusion of Swoboda （1972）; secondly, in the case of inter-temporal policy mix, if the government first executes the domestic credit expansionary policy and then implements the expansionary fiscal policy, it will lead to the rise of stock prices in the long run, but the possible rise or fall of foreign exchange reserves, which depends upon the degree of currency flexibility.