推求暴雨强度公式的统计资料年限分析

Analysis of Statistical Data Years for Storm Intensity Calculation Formula

目前,国内学者大多认为,采用年最大值法推求暴雨公式需要20年以上资料,年多个样法需要10年以上,且资料年限越长越好。然而,随着城市化的进展,改变了地表、建筑状况以及全球气候的变化,进而影响到了城市降雨。因此,本文以推求X市暴雨强度公式为依托,根据不同降雨资料年限推算出X市暴雨强度的精度以及降雨总平均值进行对比,并结合气候和各种因素差异的分析,探讨气候变化引起的降雨雨量雨型的改变对设计暴雨的影响,进而得出推求暴雨强度公式的资料年限并不是越长越好。

At present, most scholars consider that using annual maximum value method to derivate rainstorm calculation formula requires information of more than two decades, annual multisampling method requires information of more than one decade, and the information years is the longer the better. However, with the development of urbanization, the earth surface, condition of building, as well as global climate have been changing, thereby affecting the city of rainfall. Therefore, in this paper, the derivation of rainstorm intensity calculation formula of X city is taken as an example, the accuracy of rainstorm intensity and the average total rainfall value , which are calculated based on different years of rainfall data , are compared and combined with the analysis of differences in climate and other factors to explore the influence of rainfall and rainfall type changes due to climate change on the design rainstorm, and then deduced that the information years for storm intensity calculation formula is not the longer the better.