房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长

Real Estate Price Fluctuation,Bank Lending and Economic Growth

运用联立方程模型、面板分析技术及省际面板数据研究发现,我国房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长之间具有紧密的联系。分区域的实证研究结果显示:各地区房价的上涨与金融支持有关,过度的金融支持使东中部地区的房价偏离了经济基本面;中西部地区房价的上涨对银行信贷的扩张有显著影响,而经济增长是各地区促进银行信贷扩张的共同因素。此外,房价的上涨与银行信贷的扩张共同促进了我国各区域经济的繁荣。

This paper uses simultaneous equations model based on national and provincial panel data to study on the housing prices, bank lending and economic growth. We find that there is a close relationship among housing prices, bank lending and economic growth. But the empirical research of their relationship in every region of China shows differentia to us. The results reveals that bank lending is the most effective factor pulling regional housing prices and housing prices are deviation from fundamentals in Eastem region and Middle region. In the two regions, the rising housing prices have significant impact on bank lending expansion and the effects do not exist in Eastern region. On the other hand, economic growth is the common factor pulling bank lending expansion in every region. The analysis also suggests that housing prices and bank lending expansion have accelerated the boom of economy.