基于遥感与GIS的LUCC及马尔柯夫过程趋势预测——以重庆市南岸区为例

Land Use and Land Cover Change and the Tendency Forecast of Markov Process Based on RS and GIS——A Case Study in Nan'an District,Chongqing City

重庆市南岸区近年来经济迅速发展,但土地利用中也存在一定的问题,通过对其土地利用/土地覆盖变化的研究,为土地合理规划、管理和使用提供有力工具。以南岸区1993年、2001年、2007年3个时期的遥感数据作数据源,在遥感和GIS技术支持下对该区域1993-2007年土地利用/土地覆盖类型的动态度变化、转换变化和驱动力进行分析,确定了土地利用/土地覆盖类型的初始状态矩阵和转移概率矩阵,并且用马尔柯夫过程模型预测了该区2012-2024年LUCC的演变趋势。结果表明,在这14a内,城市建设用地的增加主要是由耕地和林地转换来的,还有部分水域的出入转换。南岸区经济的快速发展是导致土地利用/土地覆盖类型发生变化的主要驱动力。此外,政府在城市发展中对城市的规划对土地利用的变化也起着重要的作用。经预测表明,在现有干扰不变的情况下,南岸区2012-2024年土地利用/土地覆盖类型将呈现耕地、林地和未利用地面积逐渐减少,而水域和城市建设用地面积逐渐增加的趋势。因此为实现研究区土地资源的可持续利用,必须采取措施保护耕地和林地,加强城市建设用地的管理。

With the rapid economic development of Nan＇an District of Chongqing in recent years, there is a certain land use issues. We hope to provide a powerful tool for reasonable planning, management and use land through its land use and land cover change research. According to three periods of the remote sensing data in 1993, 2001, 2007 of Nan＇an District, with the help of RS and GIS, we analyze the dynamic degree change, conversion change and driving force of the land use and land cover types in this district from 1993 to 2007. A primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of the land use and land cover patterns are defined. Change tendency of the land use and land cover change from 2012 to 2024 is forecasted with application of Markov process model. The results show that the increasement of urban construction land is mainly converted from arable land and woodland within these fourteen years, as well as conversion among parts of waters. The rapid economic development is the main driving force leading to the change of the land use and land cover types in the Nan＇an District. In addition, the city planning carried out by the government in the urban development also plays an important role in the land use change. The forecast indicates that with constant interference in the existing circumstances, the land use and land cover types of Nan＇an District from 2012 to 2024 will present a trend that the area of arable land, woodland and unused land will decrease gradually, while the area of waters and urban construction land will continue to increase day by day. In order to realize the sustainable use of the land resources in Nan＇an District, we must take measures to protect arable land and woodland and strengthen the management of urban construction land.