太行山区泥石流暴发的临界雨量判别式研究

Study on Critical Activating Rainfall Discriminant of Debris Flow in Taihang Mountain Area

太行山区泥石流为典型的暴雨激发-崩滑转化型泥石流,泥石流的形成经历了两个过程:沟壁岩土体崩滑过程和暴雨激发泥石流发生过程。前期降雨诱发的崩滑松散堆积物和激发期暴雨积聚的洪水构成了泥石流发生的两大初始激发条件:初始激发物源条件和初始激发动力条件。因此,基于前期降雨量和激发期降雨量建立的泥石流暴发判别模型符合太行山区泥石流的激发条件,经对比验证,根据太行山区典型泥石流暴发前20日降雨量和暴发当日降雨量数据拟合建立的临界雨量判别式与实际情况基本吻合,可以为泥石流的预测预报提供判据和参考。

The debris flow in Taihang Mountain area is the rainstorm activating and dilapidation--landslide evolved style. The forming process contain two parts, that one is rock avalanche and landslide of side wall of valley, and the other is debris flow forming activated by rainstorm. The loosening dilapidation--landslide accumulation caused by forepart rainfall and the flood caused by activating rainfall are two initial activating conditions： the initial activating substance condition and dynamic force condition. Therefore, the debris flow discriminant model based on the the forepart rainfall and activating rainfall accords with the activating conditions of debris flow in Taihan Mountain area. As comparing the true value and the value calculated by the critical rainfall discriminant of debris flow, which is established by the forepart rainfall and activating rainfall of typical debris flow in Taihang Mountain area, the result shows the two values agree with. Thus, it is proved that the critical rainfall discriminant can be used for debris flow prediction.