贸易投资一体化背景下FDI对美中贸易逆差的影响:理论分析与实证检验

Impact of FDI on Sino-US Trade Imbalance Based on Integration of International Trade and Investment: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Study

本文从贸易投资一体化的角度,通过关于"中美贸易不平衡问题产生的原因"的理论分析和"美国在华直接投资的贸易效应"的格兰杰因果检验,探讨了FDI对美中贸易逆差的影响。研究指出,中美贸易不平衡问题产生的原因是多方面的:贸易投资一体化条件下国际分工的利益分配、美国等发达国家跨国公司在华投资的规模、结构及其产生的贸易效应等都是形成美中贸易逆差的重要原因,而统计误差则放大了中美之间的贸易失衡。在实证检验中,本文采取对全样本(1985-2007)和子样本(2003:1-2008:1)分别进行回归并加以比较的分析方法,找出了结构突变的原因。实证检验的结果和理论分析的结果是一致的:美国在华直接投资与中国对美国出口之间存在双向的因果关系,即相互影响。

This paper uses the Granger test of causality on ＂The Trade Effect of American FDI in China＂ and theoretical study to discuss the impact of FDI on Sino-US trade imbalance based on the integration of international trade and investment. It shows the reason of Sino-US trade imbalance in many ways. They are the income distribution of international division of labor, the scale, the structure and trade effect of FDI invested by multinational corporations of US and other developed countries. The statistical error also magnifies the trade imbalance. In the empirical study, this paper uses the method of comparison between the sample （1985-2007） and the sub-sample （2003：1-2008： 1 ） , and then finds the reasons of sudden change in structure. The results of empirical study and theoretical study are the same, which means that the American FDI in China is the cause of export of China to US, and the vice versa.