基于动态CGE的铁矿砂价格冲击经济效应研究

RESEARCH ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF IRON ORE PRICE SHOCK BASED ON A DYNAMIC CGE MODEL

利用湖南大学—莫纳什大学合作开发的中国动态可计算一般均衡模型——MCHUGE模型,对国际铁矿砂价格冲击的宏观经济影响进行动态的量化分析.模拟结果显示:澳大利亚农业研究署所预测的未来铁矿砂价格年均增长率对中国经济的影响较小,相比于基线预测值,短期里通过增加社会岗位,长期里通过提高资本存量,从而减少了中国经济所受影响的幅度.

Using the dynamic computable general equilibrium model MCHUGE model, this paper evaluated the economic impacts of world iron ore price shock. The simulation results show that the effect of world iron ore price forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics （ABARE） on China＇s economy was less, compared with the baseline forecast, it will increase the employment rate in the short run while in the long run it will increase the aggregate capital stock, thus reducing the scope of China suffered from it.