燃油税改革的动态一般均衡分析

A DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE FUEL TAX REFORM

建立了燃油税的动态可计算一般均衡模型,设计金融海啸后的预测模拟场景,综合分析和评价燃油税的征税效果.研究结果表明,燃油税改革实现了"费改税",但由于纳税群体的扩大,尽管产生了显著的节能减排效果,但不利于经济增长.相比其他产业,交通运输部门,特别是航空运输部门受损较小.长期而言,劳动密集型行业将受损有所减缓,但资本密集型行业将受损更为严重.

This paper proposed a dynamic general equilibrium model, to analyze and evaluate the effect of the fuel tax reform in China by forecasting the simulation scene after the Financial Tsunami. The results indicate that, on the one hand, the fuel tax has successfully undergone the tax-for-fee reform and thus contributed to energy saving and emission reduction. On the other hand, economy in China has been undermined to some extent due to the increasing number of taxpayers, with transport sector, especially air transport sector, suffering the relatively least loss. In the long run, the labor-intensive industry would suffer less, while the capital-intensive industry would have a harder time.