建国60年经济周期波动理论研究回顾与展望

A Review and Prospect on the Research of Economic Cycle Fluctuation Theories of the Past 60 Years since the Founding of the People’s Republic of China

回顾我国经济周期波动理论研究的历程,大致经历了改革改开放前30年和改革开放后30年两个阶段。前30年,我国对经济周期理论的研究主要还是以对社会主义经济的不平衡与波浪式发展问题的讨论为主要内容;后30年,则进入到对我国经济周期的性质、特点、原因、运行机制、以及熨平经济周期的对策等重大问题的研究和探讨。未来需要进一步研究探讨的新课题主要是:关于社会主义经济周期的长度和类型问题;关于社会主义经济体制改革与经济周期的关系问题;关于社会主义经济周期波动理论成长路径问题;关于全球金融危机与经济周期波动问题,等等。

The research on economic cycle fluctuation theories in China has gone through two stages： the 30 years before the reform and opening policies and the 30 years after that. During the first 30 years, the studies mainly centered around discussions on the disequilibrium and the wave-style development of socialist economy. In the latter 30 years, the direction of the research began to focus on bigger questions such as the nature and characteristics of our economic cycle and the causes, the underlying mechanisms and the strategies employed to smooth the economic cycles. Future studies should explore new topics such as the the length and types of socialist economic cycle, the relationship between the reform of socialist economic system and the economic cycle, the growth path of socialist economic cycle theories and the relationship between global financial crisis and economic cycle fluctuation.