基于VAR模型的我国房价与地价动态计量分析

ANALYSIS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSING PRICE AND LAND PRICE IN CHINA BY VAR MODEL

文章选择1999-2008年全国土地交易价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的季度数据作为样本，通过单位根检验和协整检验的基础上建立VAR模型，借助脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行实证研究，对进一步规范土地市场和房地产市场秩序提出建议．研究结果表明：地价与房价存在长期互动机制，房价对地价的影响大于地价对房价的影响．

This paper chose the quarterly data of housing price and land price from 1999 to 2008 as an sam- ple and established the VAR model, which was based on the results of unit root test and co-integration test, and then made an empirical study by using impulse response function （IRF） and variance decomposition （VD）. After that, some advices to improve the efficiency of real estate market and land market were put forth. The results showed that the interaction between housing price and land price was significant and long-term, and the impact of the housing price on land price was stronger.