基于多场景概率的含大型风电场的输电网柔性规划

Flexible planning of transmission system with large wind farm based on multi-scenario probability

由Monte Carlo模拟法得到风电场输出功率的概率分布。应用多场景概率的方法,将风电场的输出功率和在电网规划中涉及到的负荷变化、经济等不确定性因素,以场景分析和概率计算的方式加以描述。目标函数以发生概率为基础,按场景发生概率的大小加以区分。采用以最大单条线路过负荷率为基础的柔性约束准则,同时考虑了单条线路过负荷和总的线路过负荷情况,分别对稳态下和N-1事故条件下的线路过负荷情况进行分析。根据决策者对N-1事故校验下线路过负荷率重视程度的不同,采用权系数的方式加以区分,能够快速准确地得到基于决策者偏好的含大型风电场的输电网柔性规划方案,并更符合工程实际需求。以Garver 6节点系统为仿真算例,证明了该方法的可行性。

The probability distribution of wind farm power output is simulated with Monte Carlo method. Based on the multi- scenario probability method, the uncertain factors,such as wind farm power output,load change and economy,are described by scenario analysis and probability calculation. The objective functions are distinguished based on the probability of scenario occurrence. With the maximum overload rate of single line as the criterion of flexible constraint and the overload situations of both single line and whole lines considered,the overload situations in steady state and N-1 accident conditions are analyzed respectively. As the attitudes of different deciders toward the line overload rate in N-1 accident condition are distinguished by the weights,the decider-oriented flexible planning scheme of power transmission system with large-scale wind farm can be quickly and accurately achieved,meeting the actual needs of project much better. Simulation of Garver 6-bus system shows its feasibility.