计及风险收益的变压器更新综合经济效益模型

Comprehensive economic benefit model of transformer update considering risk return

正确评估变压器更换的效益是当前我国推动配电网节能改造的关键之一。将风险理论应用于变压器更新的经济效益评估。考虑到变压器在各个运行阶段发生故障的不同机理,分析了变压器的失效模式;基于可靠性函数和概率分析理论,推导出了可修复强迫失效和不可修复强迫失效造成的不可用率的计算模型;结合量化的不可用率与变压器故障停电损失,通过离散数值分析得出了变压器更新的风险收益;综合变压器更新的风险收益、旧变压器残值、减免的发输电投资、无功补偿费用以及年节省网损费用等方面的计算,建立了配电变压器更新的综合经济效益模型。仿真结果表明该模型具有更好的完整性与合理性。

To properly evaluate the benefit of transformer update will promote the energy- saving reconstrnction of distribution systems in China. Risk theory is applied to the economic benefit evaluation of transformer update. Transformer failure modes are analyzed with the consideration of different transformer failure mechanisms in various operating phases. Unavailability calculation model of repairable and unrepairable forced failures are derived based on the reliability function and probability theory. Combined with the quantified unavailability and the power outage loss caused by transformer failures, the risk return of transformer update is calculated by discrete numerical analysis. The comprehensive economic benefit model of transformer update is presented by integrating the risk return,old transformer residual value, decreased power system investment, reactive power compensation cost and annual net loss saving. Simulation shows its better integrity and rationality.