论我国农村贫困的决定因素——基于村民行为选择视角的实证分析

The Determinants of Poverty in Rural China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Villagers' Selection Behaviours

从现实状况看,政府主导的自上而下的反贫困模式的成效呈递减趋势。因此,为探究村民的行为选择对农村贫困的影响,文章在合理界定我国农村贫困程度的基础上,从微观层面利用相关统计数据,通过建立有序多项选择Probit模型来分析村民的行为选择在"农村脱贫"中的作用。该模型的Gibbs抽样估计结果显示:农村的企业数量、村务管理效率、村民就业结构、村民受教育程度、村内公共投资力度及村民的农业技术推广情况均构成我国农村贫困的决定因素。

Based on the fact, the effect of top-down anti-poverty mode dominated by governments is degressive. In order to study the impact of villagers＇ selection behaviours on the poverty in rural China, the paper establishes an ordered multinomial Probit model and analyzes the function of villagers＇ selection behaviours on anti-poverty in rural areas on the basis of the reasonable definition of the poverty degree in rural China and the statistical data. The Gibbs sampling of the model shows that the determinants of the poverty in rural China include the number of enterprises in rural areas, the efficiency of the management of village affairs, the employment structure and the education degree of villagers, the public investment in the villages and the popularization of agricultural technology.